In making decisions it’s important to look at the future. But ‘future’ always implies uncertainty. In our approach we therefore stress the importance of looking ahead. We don’t predict but we explore possible futures, together with our clients and stakeholders. We look at objectives in their mutual relationships, to finally reach substantiated and balanced decisions. During this proces scenario-analysis provides us with insight into the effects of (proposed) measures, and how they interrelate.
In our approach we define different scenarios with which we can perform simulations, so in the end we can see the effects of certain measures on the targeted variables. In these scenario-analysis the effects can be compared and alternative scenarios defined for mitigating measures. Uncertainty about made assumptions and model structures, is made visible in the model results and the targeted variables. Further optimization can be achieved by additional (optimization-) analysis, to arrive at an optimal balance of goals. Result of this analysis phase is insight in the potential for improvement: where are opportunities for improvement located and what is the bandwidth within which this can be realised?
connect, understand, improve
The Copernicos approach is an integrated approach. Together with clients we look at the different invested interests and goals and try to look for mutual coherence. We connect (seemingly contradictory) ambitions, we map challenges and knowledge, all in order to better understand the cohesion. In mapping and modelling we make complexity visible by showing the underlying factors influencing performance. By developing scenarios we sketch a joint picture of what the future might look like. But also what needs to be done to get there, and why. Our clients are thus better prepared to deal with (uncertain) future developments and are in the meantime capable of making balanced decisions. Connect on your goals, understand the cohesion and make better decisions.
what we do
Asset Dynamics focuses on the functioning of physical capital goods in the dynamic context in which they operate. Changing circumstances can have a major impact on the entire system. To get a better grip Copernicos uses Asset Dynamics: a modeling and simulation environment for scenario analysis. Asset Dynamics provides insight into future performance (including functional, safety, environmental and financial performances) based on proposed measures.
With our STORM method we systemically map societal challenges. We do so in order to get more insight into measures and innovations that will lead to better performance (of assets) in the future. Many of the problems we now face – such as climate change, climate adaptation, mobility, safety and sustainable living environments – are complex: many parties are involved and often there are many innovative ideas for improvement. So, the question is how to make good, balanced decisions in this multi-goal and multi-stakeholder context? STORM can help.
cases we are proud of
Department of Waterways and Public Works
Due to a sharp decline in water quality in the lake Grevelingen, the need arose for a permeable flood defence: the conversion of the currently closed Brouwersdam.
Ministry of Defence
Defense equipment is technically complex, high demands are made on performance and both the investment and operating costs of this equipment are high. Defense operations always take place in a highly dynamic environment.
our latest insight
The Transition Expedition
We are on our way to an uncertain future. A future we can discover together and that we want to make more sustainable than today. A future we can shape individually, but also collectively. To do so, we need to make choices.
Futurologist en Copernicos
In a presentation by futurologist Richard van Hooijdonck I heard a number of things that correspond with the Copernicos vision. Van Hooijdonck outlines a development that is currently underway: the world is in a process of connecting in which parts react, interact and influence each other.
Data and System Dynamics
Tom Fiddaman of Ventana Systems on how data and System Dynamics can reinforce each other. Machine Learning does not solve everything and in combination with System Dynamics we can handle complex issues: